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April 2024
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A look back at Mar and ahead to Apr
In Apr, SET upside seems limited at resistance at 1390-1400 as it lacks support and may be pressured by fund outflow if the BoT’s MPCs decided to cut policy interest rate when it meets on Apr 10. Foreign stock markets are likely to pull back or consolidate after a surge in March, which will sour the SET’s mood. We assign support at March’s low of 1350 and expect it to fall below that with the next supports at 1330 and 1300. On the other hand, if it can break through resistance of 1400, we see higher short-term upside with the next resistance at 1435-1445.
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March 2024
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A look back at Feb and ahead to Mar - In March, SET movement is expected to be limited at resistance of ~1390-1410 due to lack of positive factors and expected sell-on-fact post earnings season and XD. The uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts will also weigh on market sentiment. On the downside, the market has support at 1350-1360, with risk of falling further to 1330 and 1300. |
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February 2024
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A look back at Jan and ahead to Feb - Market upside is limited in February, with resistance levels at 1,390-1,410, due to the lack of any real drivers. Negatives include uncertainty regarding the Fed’s timeline for interest rate cuts following strong US economic data and the gloomy outlook for 4Q23 earnings as these are reported. These suggest downside risk for a new low. The lower bound support is put at 1,330 and 1,300. |
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January 2024
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A look back at Dec and ahead to Jan - The SET is expected to cool in January with some slowing. We assign supports at 1400 and 1380. It is expected to continue to recovery, driven by anticipation of a rate cut at the March FOMC meeting. A close above 1,400 is a positive technical signal. Resistances are assigned at 1430 and 1450.. |
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