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June 2023
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A look back at May and ahead to June - We expect the SET to move sideways with two key uncertainties. The first is the composition of the government coalition and the parliamentary vote for Prime Minister and the second is the chance the Fed’s monetary policy will tighten as the service sector has been stronger than expected, forcing the committee to decide if another rate hike to contain inflation is warranted. We assign lower bounds at 1,500 and 1,470 and upper bounds at 1,550 and 1,570. |
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May 2023
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A look back at Apr and ahead to May
- We expect SET downside to be limited around support of 1,490-1,510 as several items: 1) earnings for 2023 are expected to hit nadir in 1Q23 and recover from 2Q23; 2) the Fed is expected to keep policy interest rate unchanged until the yearend after another expected 25bps rate hike at its May 2-3 meeting; 3) economic stimulus policies from various political parties promised in the general election campaign will boost market mood. We assign resistances at 1,560 and 1,600.
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April 2023
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A look back at Mar and ahead to Apr - The SET is expected to rise further in Apr as investor concerns on problems in the US and EU bank sectors have eased on the rapid response by applicable agencies and no signs of contagion. Investors expect the Fed to be on the verge of a policy rate cut in 2H23. In the country, the general election is approaching, brightening market sentiment. We assign resistances at 1,625 and 1,650; supports at 1,680 and 1,660.
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March 2023
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A look back at Feb and ahead to Mar
- The SET is expected to recover in Mar after declining throughout February, eroded by worries about the Fed’s rate hikes. On the plus side is the upcoming general election scheduled to take place on May 7. Past data shows the SET usually climbs a few months before the election. We assign resistance at 1,660-1,680 and support at 1,600-1,620.
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February 2023
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A look back at Jan and ahead to Feb -
The SET in Feb is expected to consolidate after a surge since end-Dec in response to China’s reopening and the Fed’s signal of decelerating rate hikes. There seems no new support in Feb but concerns over economic slowdown pressured by rate hikes are growing. Sell-on-fact during earnings season will sour the market as well. We assign the resistance bound at 1,690-17,00 and support bound at 1,650-1,660.
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January 2023
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A look back at Dec and ahead to Jan - In January, the SET will continue to face risk from tightening monetary policy by key central banks that will pressure the global economy. We believe the market will be able to stand at supports of 1,650 and 1,630, undergirded by China’s reopening that will also boost economic activities in the region. Thai government economic stimulus measures will also give a boost. We assign resistances at 1,680 and 1,700. |
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